Is the Retro bubble bursting?

[monjici]

By looking at trends on price charting, I get the impression that the retro bubble is bursting.
I gathered price charts on a few premium games and 2016 seems the have been the peek.
Maybe you'll agree, maybe not, but I think its a valid question to ask.

If it did actually slightly burted, could we blame to overwhelming offer with the NES/SNES classic, new retro/8/16 bit games, etc... or is it our generation's the nostalgia fading off?
I personally feel like I've completed the loop. I have all the games I want/need, and I'm not seaching or buying anymore (almost )

SNES - Breath of Fire II


SNES - Castlevania Dracula X


SNES - Earthbound


SNES - E.V.O.


SNES - Secret of Mana


SNES - Super Bomberman 2


N64- Super Smash Bros.

[segamer]

Burst is the wrong word. It's more like the market is satisfied.

[TDIRunner]

Yeah, none of those charts are showing a "burst."

[wiggy]

Burst is the wrong word. It's more like the market is satisfied.

This.

[Tech13]

with emulation on the rise I see a lowered demand for actual games.

I am right there with you I completed most of my collection now I just need to repair a few things (virtual boy, and 2 playstation 3s), grab a PS4 pro, a nintendo switch, and a few new game and I will be all caught up.

I have friends that goto a lot of the conventions and most of the games I am looking for are $500 or more, and sellers at conventions say "I have only seen that game once".

While I would like to have those games, I can not justify  half a paycheck for one.

[breakmanexe]

with emulation on the rise I see a lowered demand for actual games.

I am right there with you I completed most of my collection now I just need to repair a few things (virtual boy, and 2 playstation 3s), grab a PS4 pro, a nintendo switch, and a few new game and I will be all caught up.

I have friends that goto a lot of the conventions and most of the games I am looking for are $500 or more, and sellers at conventions say "I have only seen that game once".

While I would like to have those games, I can not justify  half a paycheck for one.

100% agree with you here. I'm perfectly happy playing a burned copy of SCD SNATCHER. No way in hell can I justify paying market price for a real one.

[monjici]

I'm a big fan of physical and "official" material. The NES/SNES mini feels like filling these preferences.

I really like the HD retrovision cable with the original hardware, but HDMI with emulator save points makes it quite appeling too! So it may impact my decision on buying mor games, especially repros.

[wiggy]

with emulation on the rise I see a lowered demand for actual games.

I am right there with you I completed most of my collection now I just need to repair a few things (virtual boy, and 2 playstation 3s), grab a PS4 pro, a nintendo switch, and a few new game and I will be all caught up.

I have friends that goto a lot of the conventions and most of the games I am looking for are $500 or more, and sellers at conventions say "I have only seen that game once".

While I would like to have those games, I can not justify  half a paycheck for one.

The people who are paying $100+ for loose carts are collectors.  Playing them is much less important than simply owning them.

Emulation has been around for a LONG time. SNES emulation has been available on consoles as far back as 1998.  It's hard to imagine that having a significant impact on the price of actual carts.

[Megatron]

^ This

The only thing that seems to bring down prices of games is an official re-release (with no distinct changes to the product).  IE, If the NES Classic Re-release meets demand, we'll see scalper prices plummet.  So unless Nintendo releases a whole bunch more copies of Little Samson...not likely...that cart will still be of a high value to collectors.  Typically "collectors" drive up the price, not players.
In fact, a lot of collectors will not even play their super rare/expensive games.  They'll either emulate, repro, or flash cart games like Samson, Hagane or Sculptor's Cut.  Why risk damaging a game you paid more for than a console?  Or in some cases, a cheap car? 

[redsox2012]

I've noticed an overall downward price trend for loose cartridges and discs, even many of the premium ones.  However, complete in box premium games, or even just uncommon (but not necessarily rare) titles are still increasing.  

In many cases, the box and manual are worth more than the game itself.  While this has always been true of many NES games because so few early release boxes survived, even relatively newer games are seeing this phenomenon.  For instance, "Sega Ages" for the Saturn (a rare late release) has recently sold for an average of $60 loose and $200 CIB.  That means the empty box is worth twice as much as the disc itself.  I've noticed this trend on many PS1 and Dreamcast games as well.

[Jeremy1976]

I am sure the influx of chinese repros on ebay has affected the price

[Megatron]

I've noticed an overall downward price trend for loose cartridges and discs, even many of the premium ones.  

Downward compared to...six months ago?  Two years ago?  Because most carts seem to still be at pretty high prices considering what they were in 2014 or 2015.  Everything has a bit of up and down, but I don't see a steady decrease in anything other than maybe handheld titles.

[Tech13]

^ This

The only thing that seems to bring down prices of games is an official re-release (with no distinct changes to the product).  IE, If the NES Classic Re-release meets demand, we'll see scalper prices plummet.  So unless Nintendo releases a whole bunch more copies of Little Samson...not likely...that cart will still be of a high value to collectors.  Typically "collectors" drive up the price, not players.
In fact, a lot of collectors will not even play their super rare/expensive games.  They'll either emulate, repro, or flash cart games like Samson, Hagane or Sculptor's Cut.  Why risk damaging a game you paid more for than a console?  Or in some cases, a cheap car? 

I don't consider scalper prices as part of the fair market value.

[Megatron]

I don't consider scalper prices as part of the fair market value.

You might not, but eBay, craigslist, game stores, and pretty much anywhere that sells games do.  eBay is usually the big one - most sellers look to that for their prices.  Although many also do pricecharting.  The problem with both is that they are technically inaccurate.  Scalpers raise the average sale price, just like those who might not know what they have and sell low, bring down the average.  It's all based on what people are willing to pay.

As for scalpers, the best thing anyone can do is ignore them.  Yet given that the NES classic still sells on eBay, it's unlikely they'll be deterred.

[segamer]

I will say that I stopped buying games on eBay because the market is flooded with Chinese repros. I was looking for a copy of Ninja Gaiden Trilogy for SNES. It was axed from my list when I found out that it's being reproduced in China and is selling for $15. Now I don't trust any copy. It's too easy to get fooled. I used to look for perfect copies of games. Now I'm actively looking for games with BlockBuster stickers and such. It's pretty sad.