Odds that next Gen is digital only

[Einhander]

Just curious if you had to guess what the odds were that the next gen is digital only. And since this website has to do with collecting, I want to know how you would feel about owning all digital and if the idea of it would prevent you from purchasing.

For me, I don't really know yet. I do know that I wouldn't be as interested in the next gen. I don't know for sure it would stop me from buying, but I sure wouldn't spend the same amount of money. I'd get it maybe if it were dirt cheap, but that's probably not reality. The sucky thing about not buying would be that I'd feel like I'd be getting out of touch with the newer technology.

[Megatron]

If i had to guess right now, I would say no.  We have at least one more generation with physical game copies.

Here's why -

I think it depends mostly on when the next gen happens.  Microsoft and Sony attempted to go all digital (or start the transition anyway) this gen, and it completely backfired.  Microsoft was blasted when they announced it, and Sony had enough time to make changes so that they could avoid a similar fate.  People want physical media...at least right now.  Just look at the physical releases of digital only games - they sell like hotcakes.  In the long term though, if the Xbox One and PS4 last a decade like their predecessors, then the change can begin to happen gradually over the next 8 years.  By then people will be used to it, so it will be no big deal (in comparison to when they tried in in 2013) and this may be the end of physical copies. 

That being said, I don't believe the current generation has that kind of staying power.  They're too weak.  They are already years behind PC hardware and game developers are already struggling to get the most out of the machines.  My guess is they have another 4-5 years TOPS.  Honestly, I'll be surprised if the consoles have a full 5 years before the next gen is announced.
Just to compare, when the Xbox 360 launched it was on par with some top gaming PCs. Not the best ones, but it really gave PC a run for its money.  There was a reason to buy the Xbox 360 and the PS3 - they were beasts.  The PS4 and Xbox One are about the same as entry level gaming PCs with minimum settings.  I cannot see this generation lasting very long on the pretty much already outdated hardware.

So to get back to your question, given that I believe we will see new consoles by 2020 at the latest, I highly doubt the public will have been able to shift to a download only mentality.  Especially given where we are right now. 

The one caveat here is Nintendo - if the NX does well with download only (which is the current rumor) then all bets are off.  But I fully expect that system to fail harder than the Wii U.   

[Megatron]

Also, if consoles go digital only, they are going to need to SERIOUSLY slash the prices of games.  Some digital games are still going for $60 when their disc based counterparts are less than $20, and on STEAM they are even cheaper than that.  


The customer will go with what they like and what they know - which right now is the physical market.  After that, they will go for what is cheaper.  RIght now, as I type this, COD Ghosts is $59.99 in the Xbox Live store.  At Best Buy it is $29.99 for a new copy, $19.99 used, and I bought it on sale for $10 at Toys r Us a few weeks ago.  Who would pay $60 for this game almost 2 years after release?  Dark Souls II Scholar of the first Sin is $60.  $60!  The disc version was $50 at release and has dropped pretty much everywhere!  Wolfenstein, Diablo III, all $60. 
Thus my point that in its current form, the console download market is way, way overpriced.

[bender3455]

What I don't understand about current digital vs physical pricing is why they're the same price.  If you have a physical copy of a game at 60.00, and a digital copy of the game at 50.00, then it may make more sense to go with the digital copy depending on how you game.  But at equal prices, I don't see the draw.

[Quazimoto]

I haven't made the leap to the newer systems yet (budgetary reasons and just not enticing enough for me right now), but I can tell you...  The day a video game systems decides to go digital download only for games I'm done with them for good and will just stick with the older systems.

I do believe it will happen one day, but it's pretty difficult to say when.  Probably when gamers like us, who adore physical releases to the point of spending a good chunk of time printing and cutting quality covers, age out of the target demographic.  When the people who are perfectly fine and grew up with digital downloads in music and movies become the main video gamers in the industry, then you'll see the shift to digital only.  Until then, there's still a pretty big demand for physical copies, so they'll stick around a while.  Doubt we'd see it before the Playstation 6 era.

[wiggy]

When the infrastructure in the US catches up with the rest of the developed world (in terms of internet speeds and caps, or lack thereof), then there will be DL only consoles.

[TDIRunner]

When the infrastructure in the US catches up with the rest of the developed world (in terms of internet speeds and caps, or lack thereof), then there will be DL only consoles.

This is what I was thinking.  It's the biggest barrier right now. And consider that the gen gen games will be even larger then they are now, it will take even longer to download with current internet speeds. 

I don't think the change will happen when a new generation comes out.  I think the change will slowly happen during the life of a given generation, and by the time that generation's life is over, digital will be the norm, and the next gen will go digital only.

[sheep2001]

I can only dream of US internet speeds!

[Superchop]

I fear the day that I walk into best buy or gamestop and see nothing but d/l vouchers on the walls lol

[TDIRunner]

I fear the day that I walk into best buy or gamestop and see nothing but d/l vouchers on the walls lol

My Best Buy is sort of like that already.  No matter when you go in the store, there are no consoles on the shelves, no extra controllers, and about half of the game shelves are emply.  Pretty much just a bunch of crappy third party accessories that no one wants to buy, and a small assortment of games.  Outside of using a $30 gift card about a year ago, I haven't bought anything video game related from Best Buy in about 10 years.

[sheep2001]

But that's the thing.  We are moving further and further from physical shopping.  Less physical merchandise, less physical shops.  Don't know about the U.S. But in the UK, almost all music stores have gone.  The shift to digital music was so swift, the stores didn't have a chance to alter their business models. I used to love going into music stores as a teenager, and browsing the sales - current generation is missing out on that.  It WILL go the same way with games.  Movies are almost there with the amount of streaming services there are.  Hell even buying a film these days you get a digital download vouche along with the disc.  It's only a matter of time guys.

But they can never take our retro!!! Lol

[TDIRunner]

But that's the thing.  We are moving further and further from physical shopping.  Less physical merchandise, less physical shops.  Don't know about the U.S. But in the UK, almost all music stores have gone.  The shift to digital music was so swift, the stores didn't have a chance to alter their business models. I used to love going into music stores as a teenager, and browsing the sales - current generation is missing out on that.  It WILL go the same way with games.  Movies are almost there with the amount of streaming services there are.  Hell even buying a film these days you get a digital download vouche along with the disc.  It's only a matter of time guys.

But they can never take our retro!!! Lol

It doesn't bother me.  I've always said that even if they stopped making video games today and it became impossible to buy games going forward, I would have enough games in my collection to keep me entertained for the rest of my life.  So no worries there.

[Arseen]

But that's the thing.  We are moving further and further from physical shopping.  Less physical merchandise, less physical shops.  Don't know about the U.S. But in the UK, almost all music stores have gone.

There is one major difference between music and games.

When the music companies decide that a song is to be removed from their site you just go to another site and get it... legally or illegally.
There is always device that let's you play the song.

Try that with a game...

WILL NOT SWITCH TO DIGITAL UNTILL IT'S 100% QUARANTEED THAT THE GAME I BUY WILL ALWAYS BE AVAILABLE FOR ME TO REDOWNLOAD FOR FREE EVEN IF MY MACHINE BREAKS AND I HAVE TO BUY NEW.

[Thom Grayson]

It depends on how long this generation lasts.

If it lasts only another 2 years or so before we get new systems, then the next generation will still be physical. This is what will happen if the people who believe that the relative power of gaming PCs is going to influence development trends are right.

If it lasts another 8 or so years (running at least as long as the Xbox 360/PS3 generation did), then the next generation will probably be digital only, especially because the current generations are pushing 'free games with your subscription!' so hard. This is what will happen if the people who believe that we have reached a point where technology is by and large 'good enough' for the average consumer are right.

I've got a feeling though, that the future isn't going to be consoles or even PCs exactly, but Netflix style 'pay a flat rate, play any game on our service!'. And the console wars are going to be replaced with 'which things are on which service/who has original content'. Exactly like with what we are seeing with HBO Now, Orange Is the New Black, etc. That is to say, streaming, with no regard for the device it's on.

Steam might well become that service, and maybe Playstation/Xbox will survive as services as well. Nintendo would become nothing but a Virtual Console company. Hardware-agnostic is probably the future.

I have enough physical games to survive and ignore that shift though

[Polygon]

When the infrastructure in the US catches up with the rest of the developed world (in terms of internet speeds and caps, or lack thereof), then there will be DL only consoles.

Bingo!

That is the only thing holding it back right now. That being said, I agree that we have one more generation with physical media. The NX was brought up and I have to say, we don't know anything yet. That patent might have nothing to do with the NX. Hell, it might not be used for anything at all. And maybe it is for the NX. And maybe the NX isn't even a replacement for the Wii U. It could very well be a mobile device.