Odds that next Gen is digital only

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Einhander:
Just curious if you had to guess what the odds were that the next gen is digital only. And since this website has to do with collecting, I want to know how you would feel about owning all digital and if the idea of it would prevent you from purchasing.

For me, I don't really know yet. I do know that I wouldn't be as interested in the next gen. I don't know for sure it would stop me from buying, but I sure wouldn't spend the same amount of money. I'd get it maybe if it were dirt cheap, but that's probably not reality. The sucky thing about not buying would be that I'd feel like I'd be getting out of touch with the newer technology.

Megatron:
If i had to guess right now, I would say no. We have at least one more generation with physical game copies.

Here's why -

I think it depends mostly on when the next gen happens. Microsoft and Sony attempted to go all digital (or start the transition anyway) this gen, and it completely backfired. Microsoft was blasted when they announced it, and Sony had enough time to make changes so that they could avoid a similar fate. People want physical media...at least right now. Just look at the physical releases of digital only games - they sell like hotcakes. In the long term though, if the Xbox One and PS4 last a decade like their predecessors, then the change can begin to happen gradually over the next 8 years. By then people will be used to it, so it will be no big deal (in comparison to when they tried in in 2013) and this may be the end of physical copies.

That being said, I don't believe the current generation has that kind of staying power. They're too weak. They are already years behind PC hardware and game developers are already struggling to get the most out of the machines. My guess is they have another 4-5 years TOPS. Honestly, I'll be surprised if the consoles have a full 5 years before the next gen is announced.
Just to compare, when the Xbox 360 launched it was on par with some top gaming PCs. Not the best ones, but it really gave PC a run for its money. There was a reason to buy the Xbox 360 and the PS3 - they were beasts. The PS4 and Xbox One are about the same as entry level gaming PCs with minimum settings. I cannot see this generation lasting very long on the pretty much already outdated hardware.

So to get back to your question, given that I believe we will see new consoles by 2020 at the latest, I highly doubt the public will have been able to shift to a download only mentality. Especially given where we are right now.

The one caveat here is Nintendo - if the NX does well with download only (which is the current rumor) then all bets are off. But I fully expect that system to fail harder than the Wii U.

Megatron:
Also, if consoles go digital only, they are going to need to SERIOUSLY slash the prices of games. Some digital games are still going for $60 when their disc based counterparts are less than $20, and on STEAM they are even cheaper than that.

The customer will go with what they like and what they know - which right now is the physical market. After that, they will go for what is cheaper. RIght now, as I type this, COD Ghosts is $59.99 in the Xbox Live store. At Best Buy it is $29.99 for a new copy, $19.99 used, and I bought it on sale for $10 at Toys r Us a few weeks ago. Who would pay $60 for this game almost 2 years after release? Dark Souls II Scholar of the first Sin is $60. $60! The disc version was $50 at release and has dropped pretty much everywhere! Wolfenstein, Diablo III, all $60.
Thus my point that in its current form, the console download market is way, way overpriced.

bender3455:
What I don't understand about current digital vs physical pricing is why they're the same price. If you have a physical copy of a game at 60.00, and a digital copy of the game at 50.00, then it may make more sense to go with the digital copy depending on how you game. But at equal prices, I don't see the draw.

Quazimoto:
I haven't made the leap to the newer systems yet (budgetary reasons and just not enticing enough for me right now), but I can tell you... The day a video game systems decides to go digital download only for games I'm done with them for good and will just stick with the older systems.

I do believe it will happen one day, but it's pretty difficult to say when. Probably when gamers like us, who adore physical releases to the point of spending a good chunk of time printing and cutting quality covers, age out of the target demographic. When the people who are perfectly fine and grew up with digital downloads in music and movies become the main video gamers in the industry, then you'll see the shift to digital only. Until then, there's still a pretty big demand for physical copies, so they'll stick around a while. Doubt we'd see it before the Playstation 6 era.

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